Harris-Trump Debate: Trump’s Election Odds Fall on Polymarket
On September 10, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump participated in their first debate in Philadelphia. Throughout the discussion, they did not mention digital assets like cryptocurrency, focusing instead on topics such as the economy, abortion rights, immigration, and foreign policy.
Trump’s Election Odds Drop on Polymarket
During the debate, Trump’s odds of winning the election decreased by 3% on Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform. This drop brought Trump and Harris to nearly equal standing, with Trump’s odds falling to 49%. Harris maintained her composure, while Trump appeared agitated at times, according to fact-checking from PolitiFact.
Taylor Swift’s Endorsement of Harris
Following the debate, pop star Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris. Swift, who has a massive following on Instagram, described Harris as a “steady-handed” leader. This endorsement came at a crucial time when Harris’s performance had already affected the betting odds on Polymarket.
Potential Impact of Harris Victory on Crypto
Analysts suggest that the crypto market’s short-term success could hinge on a Trump victory. Bernstein analysts predicted that if Trump wins, Bitcoin’s price could soar to $90,000 by the end of the year. Trump has promised to end what he calls President Joe Biden’s “war on crypto” and has vowed to support the crypto industry.
Conversely, if Harris wins, analysts believe Bitcoin’s price could drop to $30,000. Harris’s stance on crypto remains largely unknown, adding uncertainty to the market.
Crypto PACs and Their Influence on the Election
Despite the lack of mention of crypto in the debate, several crypto-backed super political action committees (PACs) have been active in the 2024 election. These PACs have raised over $202 million, with $93.6 million spent to influence the election. The largest of these, Fairshake, has raised $177.8 million and spent $70.8 million, primarily targeting Democratic congressional candidates.
National Polls and Crypto’s Relevance
National polling data shows Harris leading Trump by 2.7 percentage points. However, Gallup polls indicate that crypto is not a top concern for American voters, who prioritize the economy, inflation, poor governance, and immigration.
Conclusion
The first debate between Harris and Trump did not touch on digital assets, but its impact on betting markets and endorsements could influence the election outcome. The crypto industry’s future may depend on the election results, with a Trump victory potentially boosting Bitcoin and a Harris victory possibly leading to a decline.
